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I believe a lot of the major players these days to be pretty fragile. All it takes is a good privacy policy and a "sign in with Twitter" button to move a person's environment over. Sure, you lose your messaging history, but I doubt that's a dealbreaker for a lot of people. All it takes is a crappy enough experience to motivate people to pick another corner to hang out and gab.



In my experience, "sign in with Twitter" acts as a significant barrier because people don't actually know their Twitter password.


You know what I mean: it's a solved problem to transfer your addressbook or contact list to a new service.




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