There are a number of gross oversimplifications here.
> What you want are equity stakes (control) of productive assets.
Productive assets are great, but valuation matters. When everyone is chasing yield and you are forced to overpay for productive assets, you are extremely vulnerable and stand to lose a lot more in the long run.
I'm not suggesting that you should have a mattress full of cash, but "I'm losing money if I leave my cash in the bank" is not a good justification for, say, chasing Momo stocks, especially at these levels. The risk of losing 1-2% a year is a different proposition than losing 10% in two weeks.
> You will not see interest rates go up if the Fed can help it, because to do so would provoke an immediate fiscal crisis.
You have to look at the yield curve. Short term rates are still incredibly low, but the 10Y has already crept up. Right now, it appears likely that short term rates will be kept at incredibly low levels, but long term rates will rise modestly.
If you don't consider the entire yield curve, you're liable to make bad investment decisions. For instance, a market in which the Fed is holding short term rates at near historic lows and allows long term rates to rise a bit would create an ideal scenario for mortgage REITs, which borrow money at short term rates and invest in long term mortgage bonds, effectively pocketing the spread.
>There are a number of gross oversimplifications here.
Yup. Dunno if I'd call them 'gross' or 'over,' but sure.
>Productive assets are great, but valuation matters. When everyone is chasing yield and you are forced to overpay for productive assets, you are extremely vulnerable and stand to lose a lot more in the long run.
Yes, I agree with this. As far as VCs care it's OPM. As far as entrepreneurs care it's the OPM of OPM. So mostly good for both classes of people until the music stops.
>I'm not suggesting that you should have a mattress full of cash, but "I'm losing money if I leave my cash in the bank" is not a good justification for, say, chasing Momo stocks, especially at these levels. The risk of losing 1-2% a year is a different proposition than losing 10% in two weeks.
Absolutely agree unless you are a professional trader, and even if you are a professional trader.
>You have to look at the yield curve. Short term rates are still incredibly low, but the 10Y has already crept up. Right now, it appears likely that short term rates will be kept at incredibly low levels, but long term rates will rise modestly.
Entirely possible. Also possible that there will be another round of intervention to respond. Further possible that that round of intervention would not work at achieving its intended goal of rate suppression.
> What you want are equity stakes (control) of productive assets.
Productive assets are great, but valuation matters. When everyone is chasing yield and you are forced to overpay for productive assets, you are extremely vulnerable and stand to lose a lot more in the long run.
I'm not suggesting that you should have a mattress full of cash, but "I'm losing money if I leave my cash in the bank" is not a good justification for, say, chasing Momo stocks, especially at these levels. The risk of losing 1-2% a year is a different proposition than losing 10% in two weeks.
> You will not see interest rates go up if the Fed can help it, because to do so would provoke an immediate fiscal crisis.
You have to look at the yield curve. Short term rates are still incredibly low, but the 10Y has already crept up. Right now, it appears likely that short term rates will be kept at incredibly low levels, but long term rates will rise modestly.
If you don't consider the entire yield curve, you're liable to make bad investment decisions. For instance, a market in which the Fed is holding short term rates at near historic lows and allows long term rates to rise a bit would create an ideal scenario for mortgage REITs, which borrow money at short term rates and invest in long term mortgage bonds, effectively pocketing the spread.