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You can be as sure as you like.

The fact remains that the concentration of lead in the living environment is the most strongly correlated measurable datum to crime rate than any other single factor.

If you compare factors directly relating to motives, methods, and opportunities (the crime triangle) in different cities, the correlations are still weaker than whether the population was exposed to lead pollution as children.

This is not the first article on this topic that has been published. None of them, as far as I am aware, have proven causation rather than correlation--probably because proving it would take 20+ years and be grossly unethical.

But nevertheless, it would be interesting to see what happens if one city decided to completely eradicate lead contamination from within its limits, and compare it against cities of similar character that chose not to do so over the next 30 years.




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