Of course we can't. Practice is critical in mastering a skill, and frankly as an industry we really don't practice the skill of recognizing the best people. At all.
Hiring processes throughout the industry are entirely non-rigorous, and there is almost never any loop-closing when it comes to hiring signals and eventual job performance.
We are spectacularly bad at recognizing talent because we've never sat down and rigorously connected signals to success and failure.
Tech hiring is the ultimate cargo cult. It goes through fads (remember when logic puzzles where the thing?), and works primarily via arguments that sound logical but were never even remotely verified. It's monkey see monkey do at a mass level.
Hiring processes throughout the industry are entirely non-rigorous, and there is almost never any loop-closing when it comes to hiring signals and eventual job performance.
We are spectacularly bad at recognizing talent because we've never sat down and rigorously connected signals to success and failure.
Tech hiring is the ultimate cargo cult. It goes through fads (remember when logic puzzles where the thing?), and works primarily via arguments that sound logical but were never even remotely verified. It's monkey see monkey do at a mass level.