Biotechnology is an infant, like computers at the 50s. Why should we not expect huge progress from it?
Now, I guess he'll have to redo his AI extrapolations. Chip manufacturing is now mature, and while we'll probably be only slightly latter at the computers that put 70% of the population out of a job, the current smaller rate of improvement will make a lot of difference for his 2029 prevision.
Yes, but while we're hitting the limit of our current solutions, AFAIR there's a lot more room to explore with 3D chips and optoelectronics. We might yet squeeze some more progress out of it.
> Biotechnology is an infant, like computers at the 50s. Why should we not expect huge progress from it?
We should, and in this case we have a good reason to believe it - every living thing on this planet, and every little bit of what we discover about them, is an evidence that nanotechnology is possible, works, and can do amazing things. The challenge in front of us is to understand, take control and re-purpose.
Now, I guess he'll have to redo his AI extrapolations. Chip manufacturing is now mature, and while we'll probably be only slightly latter at the computers that put 70% of the population out of a job, the current smaller rate of improvement will make a lot of difference for his 2029 prevision.