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I think the official estimate is 8 years, give or take 3 depending on average temperatures.



> The battery pack is expected to retain 70% to 80% of its capacity after 10 years

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nissan_Leaf#Battery

8 years happens to be the length of the warranty on 2011/2012 Leaf batteries. Either way, combined with the optional $100/mo protection plan that gives you a new battery if yours ever loses 30% capacity, I doubt any Leaf buyers will be on the market before 2021 for any reason other than wanting a new car.




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