It's down to ~480 so it's lost $100 in 30 minutes. Let's just say that my strange way of picking numbers can be described as "flattering" ... at worst.
No, you should pick numbers on a daily average with an indication of the daily variation on the value if you want to be fair, not at a precise instant, because Bitcoin can have as much as 30% variation in a given day, so I too can make up numbers out of thin air by picking up a very biased time during the day.
Have you seen a <insert something that for some reason it will be different this time thing here> is generally a poor argument. But one speculators cling to and try to convince others of adamantly.