I do not know when the recession will end, but I would prefer a stronger justification before believing that professional economicists like Dr. Duy of the University of Oregon are necessarily wrong about the recession ending around 2010, and saying that we are heading for a depression is a very strong statement indeed.
Yes, the housing and employment markets are continuing to decline. This is expected. We are still in a recession, and even when it ends those are lagging indicators so they are likely to remain bad even after the recession is over. But the rate at which they decline (in other words, their second derivative) has lessened. Also, many of the leading indicators (stock market, bond market) have stabilized.
I do not understand the relavence of your statement about guns and butter, and if this is so like 1929, how so?
I do not know what will end the recession, or even if something specifically needs to end it. The economy is after all cyclic. but you made a very strong and direct statement that we are heading for a depression. Given that this is contradicted by most of the economic experts that are referenced in newspapers, do you have any stronger justification?
Yes, the housing and employment markets are continuing to decline. This is expected. We are still in a recession, and even when it ends those are lagging indicators so they are likely to remain bad even after the recession is over. But the rate at which they decline (in other words, their second derivative) has lessened. Also, many of the leading indicators (stock market, bond market) have stabilized.
I do not understand the relavence of your statement about guns and butter, and if this is so like 1929, how so?
I do not know what will end the recession, or even if something specifically needs to end it. The economy is after all cyclic. but you made a very strong and direct statement that we are heading for a depression. Given that this is contradicted by most of the economic experts that are referenced in newspapers, do you have any stronger justification?