To be honest I think the bottom is going to be around $500. Pretty much everyone I know who is even the slightest bit interested in bitcoin is waiting for this crash to happen so they can jump in. Just a guess though.
Looks like the last time it traded below $500 was November 17th[1] - so everyone you know who is interested has only become interested in the past two weeks?
Yes, I've been thinking this for a long time. How should it crash if everybody is just waiting to join. As soon as it goes below a certain margin (say $600) people will flock to it, and it will go up again. At some point it will probably stay level for a couple of months, just like it did at $70. This time maybe at $400 - $600 somewhere. Actually, we may just be seeing that just this moment.
You've just described a classic ponzi scheme - it's just decentralized.
The flock of people looking to buy in allow the last group to get out of Bitcoin. Eventually you dry up the well of people who'll be able to bankroll each successive generation of "investors".
There's no commerce going on with Bitcoin on any significant scale, which means it's hugely overvalued. It's just a question of how when the next group looking to buy in on a crash is significantly smaller then the people exiting due to it.
