I'm also not convinced that selecting the data based on where Tesla's three fires occurred is the right why to analyze the statistics. Nor is it clear that the fires occuring in parking lots and similar areas involved solely stationary and unoccupied vehicles. In fact, all categories caused deaths at a rate similar to or greater than the fire rate except for one category, parking lots (which still caused 6% of deaths). Perhaps these fires involve someone driving too fast through a parking lot?
The fact that Tesla was not willing to trust the Insurance companies to price insurace going forward on the same basis should be a clue that there are people revisiting their priors. And I doubt they are reading PR pieces, they may even have less ambiguous data than what we looked at here. In any event its clear tha the range from the 'rosy' projection to the 'strict' comparison is an order of magnitude in variation. It seems implausible to argue that there is 'no material change' in risk from these new data. Regardless if the issue is just a design one (and nothing really inherent with EV vs ICE).
Your ideas are interesting. Unfortunately you've exhausted my interest in the topic. But, I still think you overstate the absolute certainty of your interpretation. I do agree that Elon is presenting the rosier interpretation of the data.
