On: Bitcoin breaks $200

[_3u10]

> And yet Bitcoin value continue to raise. If history repeats itself, we should see 1 Bitcoin levels at around $2,000.

It's 2007 I have a house I bought for $300,000 which is now worth $600,000, would you like to buy my house and in two years you will make another $600,000? If there's one thing about real estate in the last 10 years it's that it's proven all those naysayers like Shiller wrong.

[tslathrow → _3u10]

I'm not sure we've waiting long enough for Shiller to be proved correct.

If monetary policy wasn't blowing the roof out on equity valuations, we'd be seeing mean-reversion as we should.

[saym → tslathrow]

Can you elaborate on his prediction?

[tslathrow → saym]

I would suggest you read up a bit on Robert Shiller and CAPE

[fiatjaf → tslathrow]

Thanks for the elaboration and useful links.

[tslathrow → fiatjaf]

I assumed you could just look in any introductory finance textbook, but here:

CAPE Formula:

- Adjust each of the yearly earnings of the last 10 years for inflation.

- Average the result of the step 1.

- Divide the current price by the result of step 2.

When I say yearly earnings I really mean trailing twelve months. Use TIPS etc to adjust for inflation.

CAPE is mostly horseshit but basically it's designed to give a sense of over/undervaluation of risky assets

It's about as awful as any other valuation metric though.

[cturner → _3u10]

What strange times we live in where a leisure boat can be talked about as investment!

[fiatjaf → cturner]

Isn't money a valuable good? Buying goods and providing liquidity to them helps everyone. If you dig well it's the same thing as every other (things you would call) investment.