If you're specializing in webdev, it cannot hurt to look beyond and make contingency plans if this turns out to be true. You don't want to get laid off unexpectedly and find yourself technically lacking. What I mean by this: find a more specialized area and see if it's interesting. Could be mobile, machine learning, compilers, etc. Don't be scared of systems programming -- it may come back with a vengeance.
FWIW, webdev has smelled of commoditization and 'cheap' devs for a little bit to me, and it's scary. Everyone gets screwed by this; especially as you get older.
What kind of webdev are we talking about? Large backend services or a wordpress website? Or even the Ghost [1] blogging platform? By mobile, do you also include mobile web front ends then? Do you include Twitter & Facebook as part of that kind of commoditized developer?
I'm an iOS developer and have been looking into webdev to spread out a bit. Possibly something like clojure for a backend and node.js for quick simple services.
Good question! I'm speaking mostly to the simple CRUD apps that startups often concern themselves with. Complex backend services will be fine. My heuristic is this: if a framework is giving you huge productivity advantages, there's nothing stopping someone from figuring out how to GUI-ify/sugarcoat the parts you write as a good disciple of this week's True Framework. After all, that's what VB did: made it easy for non-devs to make a Windows GUI with a little bit of code. It will happen to webdev, and it will happen to iOS (usepropeller.com).
How do you counter this? Easy: specialize in something requiring hard-fought knowledge. It could be great chops in UX, or deep domain knowledge. But I use the word hard-fought intentionally: this is know-how that is not easily digestable from a blog post.
Industry may require you to be skilled in certain frameworks, but it's not the same at all as having strong, general programming skills you can apply everywhere. Personally, I'm looking to Clojure for the infinite meta-programmability, and resulting brain-refactoring that ensues.
It's about a lifetime of education, and always challenging yourself. That's the real payoff. Industry will run in circles, convincing itself it is innovating, while ignoring a lot of cool stuff done in the past. Dig into it, learn, and write about it.
If you're specializing in webdev, it cannot hurt to look beyond and make contingency plans if this turns out to be true. You don't want to get laid off unexpectedly and find yourself technically lacking. What I mean by this: find a more specialized area and see if it's interesting. Could be mobile, machine learning, compilers, etc. Don't be scared of systems programming -- it may come back with a vengeance.
FWIW, webdev has smelled of commoditization and 'cheap' devs for a little bit to me, and it's scary. Everyone gets screwed by this; especially as you get older.