Let's see if I remember any of this. If we assume the null hypothesis that Teslas have 1 fire per 20 million miles same as other cars, then P(0 fires in 100 million miles) = 0.67% and P(1 fire in 100 million miles) = 3.4% from Poisson distribution. So the odds that you'd have no more than 1 fire in 100 million miles is 4%. So I reject the null hypothesis with a p value of 0.04. (edit: fixed values)
This seems a bit dodgy since I'm "designing the experiment" after the fact, but I'm not sure how to correct for that. Any Bayesian experts?
This seems a bit dodgy since I'm "designing the experiment" after the fact, but I'm not sure how to correct for that. Any Bayesian experts?