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Student loans look like they should be easier to predict than anything else. You can't see a bubble burst untill the inability to default is lifted. Until then, there is no defaulting, so there is no loss of confidence. The only metric to measure is how few payments people are making on their outstanding loans. For example, I only pay the minimum since I'm unemployed. I've drained around $300 of my savings just on minimum student loan payments.



At some point the banks will recognize that you won't ever pay all of the loan back, and then they have to write off a large portion of that debt.

If that realization happens too quickly for too many student loans, then there might be a sudden crash. Doesn't look like it yet though.




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