- If the country he moves to doesn't have an extradition treaty with the US, that doesn't necessarily mean a whole lot. If the country is small enough politically, then they will either be pressured into giving him up, or the US will just send in a strike team to kill/capture him. Heck, the US had no qualms about sending a strike team into Pakistan to assassinate Osama bin Laden, do you think that some country a lot less political pull is going to matter to them?
- The idea that he can stay hidden for long seems doubtful. He is now a high enough value target that he would have to have money and connections like Osama bin Laden or go off to live in a cave in the middle of nowhere with little (or preferably no) human contact to escape detection.
- There probably are plenty of people that escape international man-hunts, but they aren't people that have pissed off the entire US government, in addition to embarrassing powerful people on the international stage.
This is in conspiracy theory territory. You really think there's no difference between sending strike teams to kill (a) the number one wanted war criminal responsible for the second biggest attack on your soil into a country where you already have troops for the same purpose, and (b) a regular old whistleblower into an independent country that owes you nothing?
Prior to the Osama bin Laden strike, claiming that such a thing could happen (the US sending a strike team into Pakistan without any approval/warning) would be in conspiracy theory territory.
I'm not saying that the US will send in a strike team to Hong Kong (or Pakistan or another political heavy-weight) over Snowden. I was operating under the assumption that most of the countries with no extradition to the US might not have the political clout for "anyone to care" if the US sent in a team to capture or assassinate Snowden[1]. I actually went an took a look at the extradition list[2][3], and it seems there are quite a few countries that I could see him stay in without the US caring enough to send in a covert team.
[1] The assassinate is just to drive the point home about how little people might care (other than politicians everywhere decrying the act to gain possible political favour). I agree that the US is probably more interested in putting him on trial than 'taking him out.'
Prior to the Osama bin Laden strike, claiming that such a thing could happen (the US sending a strike team into Pakistan without any approval/warning) would be in conspiracy theory territory.
No it would not, because Presidential candidate Obama made it clear he would do this in a debate in October 2008:
And if we have Osama bin Laden in our sights and the Pakistani government is unable or unwilling to take them out, then I think that we have to act, and we will take them out.
Well, I stand corrected. My point was that not-so-long-ago, such a thing would be unheard of. Seems not-so-long-ago would be prior to that 2008 speech. It's worth noting that what he said in his campaign speech, and what he does in office are two different things. That said, it even being in his speech would probably bump it out of conspiracy theory territory.
It's been official presidential policy since the first Bush administration and re-asserted under Clinton.
http://www.fas.org/irp/offdocs/pdd39.htm is an example of a presidential directive regarding extraordinary rendition to the US. (Never mind the extraordinary rendition to countries such as Libya, Egypt, Syria, etc., used to circumvent legal issues regarding torture.)
There's plenty of historical precedent as well. Israel has many well-known cases of tracking Nazis down on foreign soil and rendering them for trial with US support and assistance. Eichmann, Entebbe, Munich/Operation Wrath of God, etc.
Once you get into 'universal jurisdiction', you'll discover violations of international law committed without the assistance of the country harboring enemies of our United States. Sometimes the US has worked around official channels, such as in the case of the Achille Lauro.
- The idea that he can stay hidden for long seems doubtful. He is now a high enough value target that he would have to have money and connections like Osama bin Laden or go off to live in a cave in the middle of nowhere with little (or preferably no) human contact to escape detection.
- There probably are plenty of people that escape international man-hunts, but they aren't people that have pissed off the entire US government, in addition to embarrassing powerful people on the international stage.