The sad thing about this is that tablets and phones aren't nearly as good at content creation. A physical keyboard is still the fastest brain --> computer interface in town. Also, tablets and phones aren't self-hosting. You can't develop iOS apps on an iOS device. This makes it much harder for inexperienced people to get into programming. Taking the plunge into programming will be like deciding to buy an instrument and learning to play it.
While most people are never going to write software, those who do will be hurt by the drop in PC sales. In the past, PC R&D costs were borne by the general public. Now the public is moving to mobile devices, but developers still need to buy full-fledged computers. Lower PC sales means costs will go up (since R&D can't be spread across as many units) or manufacturers won't develop new features as quickly.
There's some silver lining: the technologies used in tablets overlap quite a bit with those used in laptops. Developers won't be stuck completely in the past, but future PCs might be a little too tablet-y for their tastes. (This is already happening with Windows 8).
I don't think the price for PCs will matter. You can always grab a bluetooth keyboard if you want to type something out, and there are even web based IDEs available, which means that you're not limited to platform. Right now, you can add a keyboard to your droid or iphone and start hacking away.
Additionally, the programming experience is in many ways focused too much on the text based code itself, and less on the act of creation. It may be that changing the PC/developer interface causes a revolution in the way that people program.
Yes, you are. The parent was arguing that PC hardware would become specialized high $ developer only equipment, but as you say all you need to recreate a PC from a mobile device are a couple of peripherals.
The sad thing about this is that tablets and phones aren't nearly as good at content creation. A physical keyboard is still the fastest brain --> computer interface in town.
Tablets are a faster brain --> interface than a keyboard for visual arts like drawing, painting, video and photography. Arguably music too, because you can simulate many different types of input from drum machines, to strings, to even wind instruments (ala SMULE's Ocarina).
>tablets are a faster brain --> interface than a keyboard
Whoa, I could not possibly disagree more with this statement.
I currently work in post production and thus spend my days in from of either Premiere or Pro Tools. Being able to turn around good work, and turn it around fast comes down to knowing your shortcuts. I cannot see how a device like a tablet could top having dozens of tools literally under your finger tips. My left hand is constantly changing tools, issuing commands,zooming, deleting, etc, etc, etc.. Right hand takes care of the mouse position. I can't image anyone who has had any experience with an editor being willing to give up their keyboard anytime soon.
Moving a finger 1/4" > moving your entire arm to poke a button on a screen.
>I cannot see how a device like a tablet could top having dozens of tools literally under your finger tips.
Can you see how a physical mixer, with faders and all, beats a virtual mixer on the Pro Tools screen as an interface in some cases? A tablets beats the keyboard and mouse in the same way.
Not to mention that most people don't work as experienced shortcut automatons, so sparing the tedious use of mouse and/or the tedious keyboard dance for immediate, visual, feedback on a touch screen is even better for them.
>I don't think you understand how shortcuts work..
I've been using computers since the late eighties, worked on from Sun OS to OS X 10.8, and have used Vim for decades, so I think I do.
But I don't find them that useful anyway.
As they get more numerous (aside from standard stuff) they only serve to give your mind a slight pause (to trigger shortcut recall, because not all are in muscle memory) and they trick you into thinking you're doing something useful for 0.5s, which for a lot of operations mostly the same time it would have taken for you to do it with a mouse. Just that with a mouse your mind is not working that hard (whereas the effort to remember the shortcut makes your mind think less time has passed).
You might think that doesn't apply to you. You'd most likely be wrong though (unless you stop-watched compared it). That's the kind of tricks the mind plays. I've not speaking out of my ass here. Here's from UI expert Bruce Tognazinni.
"We’ve done a cool $50 million of R & D on the Apple Human Interface. We discovered, among other things, two pertinent facts:
-- Test subjects consistently report that keyboarding is faster than mousing.
-- The stopwatch consistently proves mousing is faster than keyboarding."
I think you forgot to change accounts while agreeing with your post...
At any rate, you've narrowed your original broad statement,
>Tablets are a faster brain --> interface than a keyboard for visual arts like drawing, painting, video and photography. Arguably music too,
down to a specific use case -- and one I actually agree with. However, writing off the value of all shortcuts as "tedious" is fundamentally ridiculous.
I respect that you've "used computers" for a long time. However, the following assertion makes it relatively clear that you've got no idea how people interface with non-linear editors.
>As they get more numerous (aside from standard stuff) they only serve to give your mind a slight pause (to trigger shortcut recall, because not all are in muscle memory) and they trick you into thinking you're doing something useful for 0.5s, which for a lot of operations mostly the same time it would have taken for you to do it with a mouse. Just that with a mouse your mind is not working that hard (whereas the effort to remember the shortcut makes your mind think less time has passed).
Being that this is the frame of mind you have, I'd just going to leave it be. There seems to be an entire way of using a computers that you are unfamiliar with.
I recommend you drop into a post shop one day. You can see how we use keyboard short cuts ;)
(This is the strangest disagreement I've ever had online)
While I think we all know that iOS will never be self-hosting, Android is most definitely capable of this. [0] It may be tedious on a 4" phone, but it is actually comfortable on a Nexus 10 (though I prefer a bluetooth keyboard).
While most people are never going to write software, those who do will be hurt by the drop in PC sales. In the past, PC R&D costs were borne by the general public. Now the public is moving to mobile devices, but developers still need to buy full-fledged computers. Lower PC sales means costs will go up (since R&D can't be spread across as many units) or manufacturers won't develop new features as quickly.
There's some silver lining: the technologies used in tablets overlap quite a bit with those used in laptops. Developers won't be stuck completely in the past, but future PCs might be a little too tablet-y for their tastes. (This is already happening with Windows 8).