The title is misleading. I couldn't find "Englebert's law of technology" but basically Douglas Englebart must have taught him "technology predictions overpredict what technology will do for you in the short term and underpredict what technology will do for you in the long term." He goes on to say "I have seen this curve over and over, and lots of startups fail in that gap because they don't keep at it long enough. They think the technology will be there before it's really ready." So yes, keep at it, and timing is everything.
Yes you are probably correct. However it was Doug that explained to me the reason why this law holds. It is because of Moore's law that the technology level grows exponentially but the human mind seems incapable of grokking the exponential curve and thus predicts on a linear basis. The linear line stays above the exponential curve until they inevitably cross. Thus ""We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run"
We're in the same age bracket and like you, all I've ever wanted to do was write code. I'm thinking about your explanation here and wondering if Moore's law is the most relevant factor or if it's network power laws. I'm not reading a lot of posts saying "I have this great app that will be revolutionary but I need much more speed and memory in mobile devices." But I do read a lot posts about growing a network of users. On the other hand, it's inevitable that there will be much more power in mobile devices, so the it's best to see what code can be written with that target in mind, which is why I don't get involved in the native vs html5 debate. It's clear HTML5 will continue to get better and be sufficient for most applications.
I'm a few years behind you, so I idolized guys like you and Englebart when I was starting out. I kind of miss that ga-ga eyed hero-worship phase of my life. Now I'm older than the President of the United States and that's kind of hard to grasp.
