Yes, we've seen it before: I think every time a console flopped it took a company down with it (at least out of the console business). The same thing happened with synthesizers back in the day.
But I have doubts. Even if the PS4 / WiiU fail and Microsoft does "spend whatever it takes to keep the XBox relevant in the living room", will that be enough? Microsoft wasn't shy about spending money on Zune, Windows phones, or tablets -- but the Zune is gone, the Windows phones have low single-digit market penetration, and the latest tablets don't seem to be doing better (we'll see, but it's not looking good).
Reasons I'm doubtful about the future of the Xbox:
1. It's not competing against the PS4. It's competing against Steam boxes, Android consoles, phones, and tablets. Not direct competition, but competition for our attention.
2. Indie games were big in 2012, and 2013 is looking bigger. Microsoft's platforms (other than Windows) are looking less palatable, especially for newer studios. Larger studios still fail as often as they ever did, but they're not getting replaced. The AAA titles will keep coming, but they're competing with scrappy folk who license the Unity and Unreal engines for prices that are very friendly... until you want to release your game for the Xbox.
3. With every generation of consoles, it becomes more difficult and expensive to produce content that leverages the new technology. It was a long time before people figured out how to produce content that really made the PS3 look better than the PS2, although much of that was due to architectural decisions. It may be that the survival of the Xbox depends more on what the market looks like in 2015 rather than 2014 or 2013. What will Apple have released by 2015? How many indie studios will have edged the behemoths out of the industry?
4. New generations of consoles no longer provide additional media functions that consumers desire. Two generations ago you got a pretty fine CD player with your PS1, last generation you got a DVD player with your PS2, and this generation you can play Blu-Rays or stream content from Netflix/Hulu. What's left? We have a PS3, but much of its justification was as a way to play Blu-Rays, Netflix, and Hulu.
On a side note, every time I've stopped by Ground Kontrol (the local arcade) recently, it's been packed. Even with a cover charge, even when most people have work tomorrow, even when the machines cost 25ยข per play, the doorman was turning people away because the building was at its occupancy limit.
But I have doubts. Even if the PS4 / WiiU fail and Microsoft does "spend whatever it takes to keep the XBox relevant in the living room", will that be enough? Microsoft wasn't shy about spending money on Zune, Windows phones, or tablets -- but the Zune is gone, the Windows phones have low single-digit market penetration, and the latest tablets don't seem to be doing better (we'll see, but it's not looking good).
Reasons I'm doubtful about the future of the Xbox:
1. It's not competing against the PS4. It's competing against Steam boxes, Android consoles, phones, and tablets. Not direct competition, but competition for our attention.
2. Indie games were big in 2012, and 2013 is looking bigger. Microsoft's platforms (other than Windows) are looking less palatable, especially for newer studios. Larger studios still fail as often as they ever did, but they're not getting replaced. The AAA titles will keep coming, but they're competing with scrappy folk who license the Unity and Unreal engines for prices that are very friendly... until you want to release your game for the Xbox.
3. With every generation of consoles, it becomes more difficult and expensive to produce content that leverages the new technology. It was a long time before people figured out how to produce content that really made the PS3 look better than the PS2, although much of that was due to architectural decisions. It may be that the survival of the Xbox depends more on what the market looks like in 2015 rather than 2014 or 2013. What will Apple have released by 2015? How many indie studios will have edged the behemoths out of the industry?
4. New generations of consoles no longer provide additional media functions that consumers desire. Two generations ago you got a pretty fine CD player with your PS1, last generation you got a DVD player with your PS2, and this generation you can play Blu-Rays or stream content from Netflix/Hulu. What's left? We have a PS3, but much of its justification was as a way to play Blu-Rays, Netflix, and Hulu.
On a side note, every time I've stopped by Ground Kontrol (the local arcade) recently, it's been packed. Even with a cover charge, even when most people have work tomorrow, even when the machines cost 25ยข per play, the doorman was turning people away because the building was at its occupancy limit.