Your claim is that he would have faced a maximum of 2 years, which differs substantially from what Swartz's own defence have claimed.
Now, if these sources of yours had provided their opinions before Aaron's suicide then I'd be more inclined to believe them. That they presumably only developed these opinions after the suicide seems a little convenient to me.
"he might have faced as many as 2 years, but that he also might have avoided a custodial sentence even if he was convicted."
This is in direct contradiction to what Aaron's lawyers have stated. Jail time was required, and if he did not plead guilty then the DOJ would push for a 7 year sentence.
Here you conflate the position of the prosecutors as related by Swartz's counsel with the actual opinion held by that counsel about the outcome of a conviction. The two are obviously not equivalent.
And based upon what evidence?