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I think the problem is that they just don't understand the market well enough. In many ways the Surface Pro is an equivalent misstep as the Kin. They're trying to target the wrong niche in the wrong way with the wrong product and a bad business model.

They need to either outdo Apple, beat them to the punch, or play on a different field. For example, Microsoft is perfectly positioned to make the tablet as a business device a reality. IT departments would salivate over the ability to control apps and deployments and so forth the way a carrier can. Imagine if MS build a set of tools that allowed companies to make internal intranet "app stores", for example. Imagine if they made all of their office tools work well on a tablet. Imagine if they made a tablet that could easily snap into a base station and suddenly work as a monitor attached to a kb/mouse/wired internet and then be easily removed for taking to a meeting or home. And it also could have built-in 3G connectivity and smart VPN support so it would always stay effectively connected to the company network. Is that the kind of device that a lot of people would buy? Is that the sort of thing that could build an entire business that Apple would have trouble reaching for some time?

I could come up with dozens more examples. But instead of making a strong move they took a running start then stopped to tie their shoelaces and forgot what they were doing. Good specs and fancy googaws are only of limited value in the moment, and they only sell devices if you've already got mindshare. Apple could announce that it's next iPhone was dephlogistonated and it would sell devices, but that's because of all the hard, uphill brand grinding work that Apple has done in years past, MS isn't in that same space.

There are some truly cool things about the Surface Pro (such as the multi-touch + stylus input), but this is not a time for experimentation.

Apple is making in profit about 3/4 of Microsoft's revenue. Microsoft certainly still has a lot of resources still at its disposal, and it will still continue to earn billions in revenue for years (maybe decades), but the time is fast approaching of their last remaining chance to stay relevant and stay in the game before it passes them by.




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