I a court of law, or over a dinner with a mathematican, you are absolutely right.
In real terms -- in getting the prosecutor removed from office, in stopping these kinds of mindless overuse of federal reach, it is best to count both, and use the nickname 'Suicide Steve'.
I think it warrants investigation. If we have sufficient outside evidence to support the hypothesis, then of course go after him. But if the truth is that this is par for the course, and all prosecutors are driving defendants to suicide, then it would be very bad to crucify this one guy. Nothing stops progress like a good scapegoat.
In real terms -- in getting the prosecutor removed from office, in stopping these kinds of mindless overuse of federal reach, it is best to count both, and use the nickname 'Suicide Steve'.