What does winning in mobile look like? Apple isn't interested in low price low margin devices. They sell premium high margin products. If apples market share were to freeze exactly as it is now with the same margins forever raking in tens of billions of dollars a year in pure profit, they'd be happy. Of course they'd be even happier with even more, but android outselling them 2:1 isnt a problem as long as Apples margins are greate by 20:1.
I believe the common theory is that there are strong network effects in the mobile OS market. iOS is still an attractive platform for app developers but if the Apple share of the smartphone market keeps shrinking, developers will focus on Android instead.
Apple's share of the global smartphone market is increasing (module minor seasonal variations and product launch effects) and smartphones are becoming the phone market. Android is replacing RIM and Nokia faster than Apple is.
I'm not saying Elon Musk isn't right (I think a free phone OS is likely to win in the long term, since most people will buy on price over quality and eventually quality will improve or network effects will overwhelm quality considerations, just as Windows eventually destroyed Mac OS and became better in all ways thanks to ... Oh wait.)
