Your thoughts may prove to come true, but R&D is a multi-year undertaking, not something you scramble on at the last hour. The iPad was in development since 2002! Jobs has only been gone for a year. His influence should remain for at least the next five years, and only after that point can we really say if Apple is out of ideas or not.
The signs are out there. The cop-out design of the iPhone 5, the "blue sky" initiative started with the employees -they are scrambling for new ideas.
Steve Jobs was the soul of Apple. His fire is gone. He took it with him.