To the extent that anyone said the same thing about Nintendo, which I assume is what your intent was, they were wrong and Nintendo had the sales and profits to refute such a claim.
In my opinion the trouble with Zynga is that it's a game company which doesn't make games, it makes loops of engagement tricks culminating with calls-to-action for buying virtual widgets. And then make those people who play their games look like idiots by spamming their friends. The kind of people who were engaged by this were the lowest common denominator of the gaming market, but have either become too sophisticated or too jaded for Zynga's tactics. Additionally, Facebook is choking Zynga's main channel, I'm guessing because aforementioned tactics were so pervasive and repugnant that they were ruining the Facebook UX.
Given the above speculation, Zynga would have to either try to double/triple/quadruple down on monetizing cheap engagement loops, or try making and selling real games that deliver actual value (insofar as any game delivers value).
Making things that are actually fun is hard, and selling them is harder. Even if they succeed, they'll have a brutal transition period while they learn new skills and build a new market.
But the alternative looks no better. As you say, the well of credulous idiots is running dry. I haven't done any user tests lately, but a year ago our subjects were incredibly suspicious of any Facebook auth dialog. If you asked them why, it was clear that everybody had been burned, and Facebook had become too important a social context to end up looking like a fool.
The only upside I see is that we have a good reminder that that "you can fool some of the people all of the time" is not actually a good entrepreneurial strategy. Even if a hype bubble does get you to IPO.
Except Nintendo's primary revenue stream was not derived from ripping off other people's hard work, and slapping on their own artwork and calling it their own.
Nintendo created/creates a novel hardware platform, enabling other people to deliver great and compelling entertainment.
Have you ever listened to John Siracusa's Hypercritical Podcast when he remises about Nintendo, Nintendo hardware, and Nintendo games?
I do not expect anyone ever has, or ever will, wax on enthusiastically about any of the addictive little feedback loops that Zynga has sucked people into engaging. None of my friends who work there are particularly proud about the company they work for.
Zynga is one of the few (non toxin/polluting) companies in the world that I can't wait to see walk off the stage. The sooner the better.
While I agree with your analysis, I would add that the sheer entrepreneurial will and effort required to take Zynga from zero to IPO is incredible. Yes, a lot of stars had to line up in just the right way, but let's not discount the motivation of a person like Pincus, no matter how misdirected we think it is.
For that reason, I would not consider it a foregone conclusion that Zynga will disappear. To the extent that a rise-from-the-ashes is fueled by grit and determination, he has what it takes to do it. Despite the stock option clawback efforts, I don't buy the story that he's a soulless leech. He's still in it to win.
I agree with you pretty much on everything you're saying here. I haven't met Pincus, or spoken with him, so it's unclear to me whether he saw the intervening period of Zynga's "Let's get everyone hooked on addictive little feedback games, and let's speed up our product delivery (and justify our massive valuation) by rebranding other people's games" as anything more than a step to something truly great.
But, I can't judge Zynga on what, or who, Pincus might be, I can only judge them on their actions and behavior.
Who knows, maybe Zynga will go down in flames, but Pincus arises from the ashes to go off and do great things elsewewhere...
He's had some amazing ones. Here's a good selection.
First, start out with Blue Ocean. If you are a geek, and you love hardware/video games/nintendo, this is a classic episode that speaks to you in so many ways. It's not so overly technical that our eyes glaze over, but it's narrated by someone who is one of us, and is entertaining, and deeply deeply loves his topic (and Nintendo).
I'm not a gamers as much as I used to be, but Siracusa brings back the wonder of it all. Seriously the one podcast I look eagerly forward to every week.
