At first I assumed that the scientists must have been out drinking, or must have made up the data ... but, no, they simply gave the best prediction they could, as they should.
I guess that forecasters of quakes and weather in Italy now have two alternatives: always claim a disaster is upon them, or move to a country where judges understand statistics.
Don't be so naive! Scientists are not bound by some force of Nature to tell the truth. The accusation is exactly that they didn't tell all they knew about the earthquake, but they hold back the information in order to "quiet down" the population.
Obviously, I don't know if the accusations are true or false, but, knowing Italy, where "famous" scientists are usually very close to politicians, it would not surprise me at all.
Where I live now, the local sports talk radio hosts always blast the weather guys when they forecast doom and gloom with an incoming snow storm, regardless of how much snow we get. Maybe it's just the "we're tough" Scandinavian culture, but they really make a mockery of the forecasts as always being overblown and sensationalist before anything happens.
At first I assumed that the scientists must have been out drinking, or must have made up the data ... but, no, they simply gave the best prediction they could, as they should.
I guess that forecasters of quakes and weather in Italy now have two alternatives: always claim a disaster is upon them, or move to a country where judges understand statistics.