I found that "don't launch when somebody famous is in ill health" -- as well as the lesson about simply copying Apple's launch dates/times -- could best be summed up by something a bit broader. Namely, do your market research before your launch.
Market research means knowing your customers, as inside and out as you possibly can. And, if HN users represent a significant chunk of who you expect to be your early adopters, then you should make it your business to keep abreast of everything happening in the HN world. The world of stories of potential interest to HN is direct competition to your launch announcement. If you want to be newsworthy, know what news you're going up against -- especially as relates to your specific audience.
(In fairness, I don't think anyone in their shoes could have predicted Steve Jobs's death, down to the day and time. But even still, there could have been a hundred other big-attention topics that would have buried them, had they not been paying attention. Such as another major product launch, or what have you -- things that would have been slightly more predictable.)
Market research means knowing your customers, as inside and out as you possibly can. And, if HN users represent a significant chunk of who you expect to be your early adopters, then you should make it your business to keep abreast of everything happening in the HN world. The world of stories of potential interest to HN is direct competition to your launch announcement. If you want to be newsworthy, know what news you're going up against -- especially as relates to your specific audience.
(In fairness, I don't think anyone in their shoes could have predicted Steve Jobs's death, down to the day and time. But even still, there could have been a hundred other big-attention topics that would have buried them, had they not been paying attention. Such as another major product launch, or what have you -- things that would have been slightly more predictable.)