Seems to me none of you guys have the correct understanding of what Spitznagel does at his Universa. He actually uses these out of the money options payoffs not to bet on random black swans, but rather to exploit really big moves that he is actually counting on (apparently based on bs understanding of Austrian economics). All this black swan talk was BS afterall. He says...
"black swan events have been largely insignificant in at least the last century of capital investment in the U.S., including the current crisis. Investors have indeed encountered surprising and pernicious events, but the fact is those who were surprised have essentially been those (in the extreme majority) with a brazen disregard for the central concepts of Austrian capital theory and monetary credit expansions."
in his paper "The Austrians and the Swan: Birds of a Different Feather" here
http://www.universa.net/UniversaSpitznagel_research_201205.p...
