It is insufficient to make a prediction like 50-50 in a US election unless you also can explain turnout. Anyone can throw out numbers like "51-49" or "55-45" but how did you get to those numbers? How are different demographics voting? How is there turnout changing? I've seen people laud their own accuracy in 2020 while being off by about 30 million in predicted turnout.
The way different demographics vote in US elections doesn't change much from election to election. What does change is turnout and turnout is a function of many things: enthusiasm for the candidate, voter suppression, ease of access to voting and so on.
2020 was unprecedented because of the pandemic. We greatly expanded early voting and mail-in ballots, which greatly increased participation.
A perfect example of this is Arizona. In 2020, Native Americans were crucial to flipping the state to Biden. Arizona state lawmakers responded to this by essentially punishing them and making it way more difficult to vote. Voter ID requirements, birth certificates and even having a physical address are all impediments to people who were born on and/or reside on reservations. There were fewer voting places and voting options. A rural voting place might randomly close early too after being an hours long drive.
Some looked at this and said Native Americans in Arizona swung hard to Trump. No, they were simply largely prevented from voting such that the only Native Americans who could reliably vote were more affluent and thus more likely to be Trump voters.
My point is: what polling model captured this prior to the 2024 election? I guarantee you it's none.
What really happened in 2024 was:
1. Biden voters swung to the couch in the millions;
2. Trump basically didn't lose white women, despite the abortion issue; and
3. Trump activated a previously low-propensity voter demographic: angry, young, terminally online white males, basically the Andrew Tate and 4chan crowd.
Any model has a difficulty with low-propensity demographics. Did any model capture this? I think it only started to become apparent with early voting exit polls.
I don't think the 2024 polls were particularly accurate. I do think they threw their hands up and simply converged to 50-50. Small differences in turnout predictions for different demographics can massively impact the result.
The way different demographics vote in US elections doesn't change much from election to election. What does change is turnout and turnout is a function of many things: enthusiasm for the candidate, voter suppression, ease of access to voting and so on.
2020 was unprecedented because of the pandemic. We greatly expanded early voting and mail-in ballots, which greatly increased participation.
A perfect example of this is Arizona. In 2020, Native Americans were crucial to flipping the state to Biden. Arizona state lawmakers responded to this by essentially punishing them and making it way more difficult to vote. Voter ID requirements, birth certificates and even having a physical address are all impediments to people who were born on and/or reside on reservations. There were fewer voting places and voting options. A rural voting place might randomly close early too after being an hours long drive.
Some looked at this and said Native Americans in Arizona swung hard to Trump. No, they were simply largely prevented from voting such that the only Native Americans who could reliably vote were more affluent and thus more likely to be Trump voters.
My point is: what polling model captured this prior to the 2024 election? I guarantee you it's none.
What really happened in 2024 was:
1. Biden voters swung to the couch in the millions;
2. Trump basically didn't lose white women, despite the abortion issue; and
3. Trump activated a previously low-propensity voter demographic: angry, young, terminally online white males, basically the Andrew Tate and 4chan crowd.
Any model has a difficulty with low-propensity demographics. Did any model capture this? I think it only started to become apparent with early voting exit polls.
I don't think the 2024 polls were particularly accurate. I do think they threw their hands up and simply converged to 50-50. Small differences in turnout predictions for different demographics can massively impact the result.