On: An election forecast that’s 50-50 is not “giving up”

[lyu07282]

At the end of the day it was a 312 vs. 226 in the Electoral College. Seems a bit odd that this is supposed to be impossible to be predicted with any useful amount of certaintly. But perhaps that says more about the nature of the Electoral College than it says about pollsters.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efforts_to_reform_the_United_S...

[culi → lyu07282]

Almost every major model had this outcome as very likely.

There was an inordinate amount of very close swing states in 2024. Whichever way the swing was gonna be was likely to apply across the board.

If you're going by popular vote, then this was actually the 8th closest election in all of US history.

[stevenwoo → culi]

Not that I'm claiming this for this particular discussion, but a lot of people in favor of what is happening in the USA want to justify what's going on by claiming this was some sort of overwhelming political sweep in this country instead of being a close race at all levels (roughly handful of votes in House and Senate to achieve parity). Who would have picked a Arab American protest vote as major factor in swing states in 2024 when asked in 2020?

[culi → stevenwoo]

It's beyond the Arab American vote. It's also the youth vote

When the George Floyd uprising happened, it was the largest civil rights protest in human history. Over 70 nations held demonstrations. Where I was, the Students for Justice and Peace in Palestine organized most of the protests. Black-Palestinian solidarity has an extremely long history. So does Irish-Palestinian and Palestinian-Native American solidarity. They've been engaged in building a worldwide network of solidarity with oppressed people for decades now. Almost every George Floyd protest included chants about freeing Palestine and it's shocking how little coverage this got

I think people continue to radically underestimate how much youth, Black, and other minorities will continue to follow the lead of Palestinian organizers. And the Democratic party needs to take it seriously if they want to win again

[DrFalkyn → culi]

But they can’t take it seriously. Going against Israel is an election loser in just about every district, and definitely at the level of the Senate in the presidency. The Lobby is just way too powerful

[wakawaka28 → lyu07282]

They have to claim it was hard to predict, because they deliberately led people to believe that the establishment-favored candidate was going to win. They knew better the whole time but hoped to help their candidate by making the situation look hopeless for the true popular choice.