That I have no idea about; you'd have to do a survey and get honest results from CEOs which have run companies that tanked. CEOs have much more insider information than "this mythical market", but I'm sure primary insiders have occasionally been blindsided by a crash in the stock value before it was obvious that anything was wrong with the company.
Regardless, Pincus & co. will probably be investigated by the SEC after this. Illegal insider trading is punished very harshly.
What if you're the guy running the entire company? Will this mythical 'market' you keep referring to run your company better than you can?