There's a theory that any industry category will naturally support three competitors, in a certain market-share ratio like 60%, 30%, 10% [1]. This happens free of market manipulation, and mostly depends on marketing strategy rather than the competitors' actual merits. Think Google, MSN and Yahoo right now, for example, or car brands in the past, soft drinks, car rental companies -- there's a market leader, a rival/also-ran, and a something-different. Anyone else has trivial market share.
Following this rule, the market for operating systems is clearly out of whack. Windows' share should be much smaller, but still majority, because that's how it's marketed -- the market leader, the one everybody else uses. Apple should get the Avis spot -- #2, but we try harder. And Linux should still hold onto around 10% share, by adapting to meet the specialized needs that Joe User-oriented OSes have to leave behind.
The rise of cross-platform and platform-independent apps, and mobile devices where the OS shouldn't even be noticeable, break the network effect that supports Windows' considerable lead and allows the market shares to drift back toward the natural ranking.
[1] Closest citation: 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing, Law of the Ladder. I think Laura Ries has supported the 3-player claim more specifically.
Following this rule, the market for operating systems is clearly out of whack. Windows' share should be much smaller, but still majority, because that's how it's marketed -- the market leader, the one everybody else uses. Apple should get the Avis spot -- #2, but we try harder. And Linux should still hold onto around 10% share, by adapting to meet the specialized needs that Joe User-oriented OSes have to leave behind.
The rise of cross-platform and platform-independent apps, and mobile devices where the OS shouldn't even be noticeable, break the network effect that supports Windows' considerable lead and allows the market shares to drift back toward the natural ranking.
[1] Closest citation: 22 Immutable Laws of Marketing, Law of the Ladder. I think Laura Ries has supported the 3-player claim more specifically.