How this case works out for Apple and Google depends entirely on the remedy.
IF the court ends up banning ANY search engine paying for being the default search engine then that (IMHO) it's a massive win for Google. Why? Because nobody else can pay for being the default. And Google will save billions of dollars. Apple loses billions of dollars, which is why they're trying to intervene.
IF the court simply restricts Google from paying for being the default search engine then that's less good for Google and slightly better but still bad for Apple because nobody can write checks like Google can.
We have some direct data of how others paying for being the default search engine hasn't worked out so great. I'm specifically referring to the Firefox-Bing deal that didn't last all that long.
Could this prompt Apple to make their own search? I'm inclined to say "no". Apple already took this step with Apple Maps. It's been 12 years and, depending on country, there are still some massive gaps to Google Maps. I think it's (finally) pretty decent in the US. In others it's almost unusable however.
I also think that Apple will probably bet on AI Assistants as the future.
I also think that Google maintains its marketshare because, despite pearl-clutching about how Google has fallen off by tech people who never seem to substantiate that with actual examples, Google is still the best option for most people. And it's not even close.
IF the court ends up banning ANY search engine paying for being the default search engine then that (IMHO) it's a massive win for Google. Why? Because nobody else can pay for being the default. And Google will save billions of dollars. Apple loses billions of dollars, which is why they're trying to intervene.
IF the court simply restricts Google from paying for being the default search engine then that's less good for Google and slightly better but still bad for Apple because nobody can write checks like Google can.
We have some direct data of how others paying for being the default search engine hasn't worked out so great. I'm specifically referring to the Firefox-Bing deal that didn't last all that long.
Could this prompt Apple to make their own search? I'm inclined to say "no". Apple already took this step with Apple Maps. It's been 12 years and, depending on country, there are still some massive gaps to Google Maps. I think it's (finally) pretty decent in the US. In others it's almost unusable however.
I also think that Apple will probably bet on AI Assistants as the future.
I also think that Google maintains its marketshare because, despite pearl-clutching about how Google has fallen off by tech people who never seem to substantiate that with actual examples, Google is still the best option for most people. And it's not even close.