When trying to understand non-localized, large scale phenomena, yeah, you should defer to data and statistics. That’s literally why we invented them. We discovered over and over that people’s intuitions about what they were seeing were completely unreliable.
Why do you think statistics exists and all this machinery for capturing and processing data?
Statistics often exist to bamboozle and provide false and misleading context to otherwise extremely unpopular policy.
In this case, for example, to justify actions (or lack thereof) that will sway voter demographics in your favor over the medium term.
