You put this better than I could have. I am really impressed by LLMs' ability to respond to a prompt with code which compiles and runs. That's a hugely impressive result. But it doesn't mean the technorapture is just around the corner. There's a vast gulf between what LLMs can do currently and what skilled people do, and it's not "obvious" that there's some path from here to a world in which LLMs become some kind of superintelligent engineer-gods. It could be physically impossible, for all we know. That's why the pseudoreligious twaddle gets under my skin so much--it's the naive assumption that progress is linear, instead of a jumpy "fits and starts" process of accidental discoveries building on one another (or encountering dead ends). There's no way to know whether these things can be improved enough to be truly useful for real work and pretending it's "right around the corner" won't necessarily make it happen.
