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Right, but if 55% is avg over the last few years, “buy stock” is going to be correct more than not.

https://www.crestmontresearch.com/docs/Stock-Yo-Yo.pdf




I think this is a good highlight of why context and reality checks are incredibly important when doing work like this. At first glance, it might look like 55% is a really good result, but in the previous year, a flat buy every day strategy would've been right 56.7% of the time.


55% means basically nothing in this context if even money. Long 45% to 55% is most likely completely random because it is symmetric with shorting 45% to 55%

Exactly what you would expect from a language model making random stock picks.




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