That assertion is due to the incorrect assumption that we can’t feed everyone on the planet if farming becomes less productive than it is today, and ignores that we currently produce very large food surpluses.
> They conclude that farming productivity will be reduced by 25% and farming is 4% of global GDP, so it’s 1%. Then they model some effect on the consumer because food prices go up.
> It does not occur to the authors to model impact of physical result of that, which is, famine and political instability that comes with it.
> incorrect assumption that we can’t feed everyone on the planet
You are the one making incorrect assumptions, specifically that food production is a steady and constant process like producing iPhones.
In the real world, crops fail due to seasonal weather all the time and it affects global food prices.
Research predicts multiple famines due to simultaneous crop failures in global bread baskets. That’s why responsible countries like Norway started stockpiling food.
The point is not even that - economists are simply not qualified to assess accuracy of their base assumptions.
now I have to debate people who claim we should not address climate change because worst case is 1% damage to GDP.
What are the report margins on that? Suppose there is a 10% chance that the drop is higher, like 30%/35% and does cause a famine specifically concentrated in the US, or nuclear armed Pakistan, and Global GDP falls by 40%.
Have you seen them report finds the n a way that accounts for, however small; possibility of total disaster?
That article has no mention of famines. The article is about supply chains and price shocks and using stockpiles of grain as “buffers” to soften sudden price swings. It makes sense: Grain in one place can’t feed people in another unless it can move through the supply chain.
> Research predicts multiple famines due to simultaneous crop failures.
> They conclude that farming productivity will be reduced by 25% and farming is 4% of global GDP, so it’s 1%. Then they model some effect on the consumer because food prices go up.
> It does not occur to the authors to model impact of physical result of that, which is, famine and political instability that comes with it.