"Could you please remind me of historical cases the civil society prevented their rulers waging a war?"
History is a big book, but what I personally witnessed, were the peace demonstrations in France and Germany against the invasion Iraq and in the end we did not take part in that war.
And the Vietnam war was largley stopped because of the civil unrest and demonstrations back at home.
More about democracies, sure, but even dictators have to mind the masses.
Or maybe it was the other way around? Exactly like in Ukraine? Who knows…
If NATO is not against Russia then why Russia is the only “soviet” state that NATO refused to accept? Divide Russia in many equivalent regions: how many of them can join NATO before NATO refuses to let them join? Or is it that only regions that are not under filo-Putin leaders’ control are accepted?
Well instead of applying Russia invaded a sovereign country. So, I guess we won't know will we? Probably something to do with their post soviet inferiority complex.
Please do correct me: the wars in Georgia, Moldova, and Chechnya never happened?
1991–1993 - Georgian Civil War /
1991–1992 - South Ossetian War /
1992–1993 - War in Abkhazia /
1992 - Transnistria War /
1999 - War of Dagestan /
... so conflicts where Russia occupied territory, shouldn't be of concern to any former Soviet states? You don't think played a role in the decision to defend themselves from a neighbour known for their invasions and genocide?
That’s an existential threat to Russia. If Ukraine succesfully made a change more Russian sattelites would get the idea that it’s possible to escape the Russian grip. Second is the power projection on the Black Sea Russia was set to lose.
This is repeated over and over again, but doesn't make it true: it is an existential threat to a corrupt regime, not to Russia.
Russia will be fine without the regime. It may have some rough times, but in the long run, it will be fine. Putin's regime isn't Russia, and Russia isn't Putin's regime.
Just like the propaganda narrative: "Oh Russia tried democracy for a couple of years and it was awful! Democracy doesn't work in Russia!"
Reforming institutions and culture isn't something you do in a few years. Look at the process Ukraine is going through to join the EU. It takes time, and thankfully, we have frameworks for what works nowadays.
What matters is that the EU has the mechanisms, frameworks, controllers, and auditors that monitor this process.
It has worked well for most European countries, with the only exception being Hungary, which, from the looks of it, won't last much longer in the EU.
Joining the EU isn't a theatrical display of a man singing a piece of paper, that has no value, at a big table with all the state-controlled media cameras pointing at him.
But now it's my turn to guess... you're observing Ukraine from the Russian side, and you think you know the process better than the Ukrainian... and the EU... while not living in a democracy or knowing what it takes to make a democracy work properly.
>Why does it matter where I'm observing this from?
Because the processes that are happening in Ukraine has nothing to do with democracy, human rights, religious freedoms, rights for private property, courts independence etc. And yes, I'm well aware that EU propaganda tells beautiful stories of how all of the above prospers in Ukraine, but reality on the ground is total opposite.
>But now it's my turn to guess... you're observing Ukraine from the Russian side, and you think you know the process better than the Ukrainian... and the EU... while not living in a democracy or knowing what it takes to make a democracy work properly.
Man, I have relatives living in Odessa since Soviet times. I have multiple friends in Ukraine that I studied in University with, that are living in Kiev and Kharkov. I've been in Ukraine many times over the 43 years of my life, and while I haven't been there since 2022 for obvious reasons, I have a good clue of how life there looks like if you're actually there, not listening to your local propaganda. What's going on there has nothing to do with democracy or human rights, and it's a pain for me for every day this war keep going.
> Because the processes that are happening in Ukraine has nothing to do with democracy, human rights, religious freedoms, rights for private property, courts independence etc. And yes, I'm well aware that EU propaganda tells beautiful stories of how all of the above prospers in Ukraine, but reality on the ground is total opposite.
And you know this because your... propaganda told you so?
You're accusing me of being gullible for the EU ascension process, which enrolled 27 countries, many of them thriving. But we should believe you because of anecdotes of someone who apparently doesn't know the institutions and functions of a democracy.
Or you're expecting a country that is being annexed in a genocidal war, with Martial Law in place, to be thriving? +10 million Ukrainian refugees.
> I have a good clue of how life there looks like if you're actually there, not listening to your local propaganda.
Of course, you know - and Russia knows what's best for Ukraine - everyone else, including Ukrainians, doesn't know?
Well, more an existential threat to the current regime running the place. I imagine the Russian people would be quite happy to have a regular democracy. Which is one reason Putin isn't very keen on one in Ukraine.
Ukraine never had any glimpse of regular democracy. For 30 years it was just a state when one or the other oligarchical clan was able to install its puppet on the throne to decide who's looting the majority of profits in their pockets.
Right now Zelensky totally usurped power, his political opponents were either killed of forced to flee the country, total mass media control installed, everyone who tried to argue were raided and taken under control or had to flee the country, religion rights are taken away, churches are raided and the right people are getting installed. Borders are crossed and mined, everyone who's trying to flee the country are getting hunted and killed if there's no way to catch them to send in trenches. Russian language, that is the mother tongue for 80% of population and Zelensky himself is forbidden in schools, and any other public services. We have a classic case of nationalists dictatorship being installed and turned the country in the same shit hole that Germany became in the late 1930's with storm troops having population under control by force. That's why Putin isn't very keen on what's going on in Ukraine.
Well, yes, Putin is attemptng to revive the whole shebang and these countries don’t want it any longer. The threat is more countries breaking apart from the sphere of influence and Putin’s plan falling apart completly.
Had there been another plan, make prosperity by other means then yes, this whole thing would not be any threat, they’d have embraced it and played along and won on different fronts: they almost had the entire Europe dependent on gas. But then Mr Putin blew it.
What do you expect when you murder civilians and level cities with artillery? More genius rhetoric. Keep it up!
edit for above edit: A mutual defense alliance is neutral. Don't attack and you won't have to deal with it.
Edit for below edit: Well we're far past that. Ukraine will be joining NATO and there's nothing you can do about it.
Another edit for below: This is what you don't get for your last edit. It simply doesn't matter. The world where Russia can act with impunity with nuclear sabre rattling isn't a world worth living in. I know that makes you so very upset, but you're just going to have to accept it.
And yet again edit: Correct, the state reserves the right to violence.
>What do you expect when you murder civilians and level cities with artillery? More genius rhetoric. Keep it up!
see above
> edit for above edit: A mutual defense alliance is neutral. Don't attack and you won't have to deal with it.
edit cubed: you logic leaks everywhere, don't join NATO and you will not have to deal with it
> Edit for below edit: Well we're far past that. Ukraine will be joining NATO and there's nothing you can do about it.
edit for the edit games: if so, we are past world-end then, and there's nothing you can do about it...
> Another edit for below: This is what you don't get for your last edit. It simply doesn't matter. The world where Russia can act with impunity with nuclear sabre rattling isn't a world worth living in. I know that makes you so very upset, but you're just going to have to accept it.
edit for the last edit: Funny because, USA is the _only_ country that _actually_ used nukes with impunity... twice
> And yet again edit: Correct, the state reserves the right to violence.
I guess that's true for every state in the world...
If you don't want to live in such a world, go ahead, but you can't think everyone will follow you.
> Especially when you can't project your military power a few hundred km over your own border.
Quite a lot of western commentators were just as surprised as Putin to discover that Putin commanded a force that managed to lose its own tanks to local farmers.
The difference is we got out the popcorn, and he got filmed anxiously gripping his own desk for 12 minutes.
Since then Putin has put his country into a war economy, and now it is a war of attrition because Ukraine is given just enough support to not lose but not enough to win either — Biden is both afraid of Russia winning and also of Russia escalating it if they lose too hard.
This war will go on until the west gets tired of supporting Ukraine or decides that escalation is a risk they're willing to take or Russia collapses under the weight of the war economy or Ukraine develops nukes; but I don't mean "the USA" when I say "the west" despite the fact that most current support comes from the USA, as many European countries have been building up their militaries both in reaction to what Putin did and in anticipation of Trump taking the US out of NATO.
I count that under "decides that escalation is a risk they're willing to take". We can all see the claims and threats made by the Russian government, we know they want us to fear their nukes, that's why the US government has been concerned about escalation.
I personally think there's a 75% they can't use any of their nukes and a 92% they can't use a strategically decisive number of nukes.
But I'm doing armchair analysis here, and even if I wasn't those odds are only sufficient for me privately to not worry, they're not enough for a government to not plan for the worst. I'd be more worried if the US was more hawkish and cavalier about this.
Though that's even assuming Putin (etc.) actually tries to use them — as I said, Biden's deliberately not given enough aid for Ukraine to win hard precisely because he doesn't want to risk it.
He's limiting support to enough to not lose, which is different than winning; he doesn't want Russia to keep rolling tanks to the line of the old Iron Curtain either.
