Ypur first argument is interstellar but doesn't help solving, because the set ruled out is exactly balanced (cancelled) by the first red ball being removed from al the other sets.
The second paragraph just says that guesses can sometimes be right, which of course is true, but doesn't tell us which guesses are likely to be correct. Wha y you claim as intuitively obvious at all, and I think most people would avoid those sets. And it's not the same problem anyway, because in the problem the sets are chosen randomly according to a stated rule, not based on a personal bias.
The second paragraph just says that guesses can sometimes be right, which of course is true, but doesn't tell us which guesses are likely to be correct. Wha y you claim as intuitively obvious at all, and I think most people would avoid those sets. And it's not the same problem anyway, because in the problem the sets are chosen randomly according to a stated rule, not based on a personal bias.