I'm 20+ years here and want to just call out it's a bit of a "moving goal posts with "but given a large project" comment.
I do think it is helpful in large projects, but much less so. I think the other comment gives a good example of how it can be useful, and it seems fairly obvious as context sizes are increasing exponentially in a short amount of time that it will be able to deal with large projects soon.
When using it in larger projects, I'm typically manipulating specific functions or single pages at a time and use a diff tool, so it comes across more as PR that I need to verify or tweak.
Sure, but advocates are talking about multiples of increased productivity, and how can that be defended if it doesn't scale to a project of some size and complexity? I don't care if I get a Nx increase on a small script or the beginning of a project. That's never been the pain point in development for me.
If someone said that, over a significant amount of time and effort, these tools saved them 5% or maybe even 10% then I would say that seems reasonable. But those aren't the kinds of numbers advocates are claiming. And even then, I'd argue that 5-10% comes with a cost in other areas.
And again, not to belabor the point, but where are the in-depth workflows published for senior engineers to get these productivity increases? Not short YouTube videos, but long form books and playlists and tutorials that we can use to replicate and verify the results?
Don't you think that's a little suspect that we haven't been flooded with them like we are with every other new technology?
No, I don't think it's suspect, because it seems like you're looking at a narrow-focus of productivity increase.
"advocates are talking about multiples of increased productivity", some are, some are not, and I don't think most people are, but sure, there's a lot of media hype.
It seems like the argument is akin to many generalized internet arguments "these [vague people] say [generality] about [other thing]".
There are places that I do think that it can make significant, multiples of difference, but it's in short spurts. Taking over code bases, learning a new language, non-tech co-founders can get started without a tech co-founder. I think it's the Jr Engineers that have a greater chance of being replaced, not the sr engineer.
I do think it is helpful in large projects, but much less so. I think the other comment gives a good example of how it can be useful, and it seems fairly obvious as context sizes are increasing exponentially in a short amount of time that it will be able to deal with large projects soon.
When using it in larger projects, I'm typically manipulating specific functions or single pages at a time and use a diff tool, so it comes across more as PR that I need to verify or tweak.