Truth be told, most big tech teams could benefit from significant thinning. I work in one (at a FANG) where half the people don't seem to be doing much at all, and the remaining half shoulders all the load. The same iron law held in all big tech teams I worked in, except one, over the course of the last 25 years. If the useless half was fired, the remaining half would be a lot more productive. This is not a new phenomenon. So IDK if "firing 80%" is going to happen. My bet - nope. The only number that matters to a manager is the number of headcount they have under them. And they're going to hold onto that even if their people do nothing. They are already doing that.
You switch topics. There are useless people. Not talking about them. Ignore useless people.
You and your good useful programmer coworkers do 80% llmable bullshit, 20% good stuff. So among you, if your boss is smart he will fire 80% of you and spread 20% non-llmable work across remaining people. You hope your coworker gets fired, your coworker hopes it's you, and you both help make it happen
Fire everyone and make themselves redundant? Please. You're also assuming the amount of non-bullshit work would stay constant, which it won't. I'm doing a ton more non-bullshit work today thanks to LLMs than I did 2 years ago.
> Easily 80% of all programming consists of bullshit tasks that LLMs of 2024 are able to solve within seconds to minutes, whereas for me some of them would take half a day of RTFM
> I'm doing a ton more non-bullshit work today thanks to LLMs than I did 2 years ago.
Logically this means either there is more non-bullshit tasks in total or some of your coworkers were fired so your workload is the same...
Are you paid more for doing more difficult work, adjusted for inflation?
I enjoy difficult work in my area of expertise a lot more, and dread boilerplate work, and work in unfamiliar domains that takes time for RTFM and trial and error. As to my pay, let’s just say I’m not complaining, especially when I get to do more of the stuff I enjoy. Also: work expands.
> I enjoy difficult work in my area of expertise a lot more
Real question: is it difficult work if that's exactly the part you like and you are not paid more when you do it more? What makes it difficult-- just the fact that LLM can't do it this year yet?
I wouldn't call my work "difficult". Boring parts can be hard but with the right stack there are very few. Stuff like back and forth to understand customer requirements is difficult but that's not even my job.
> let's just say
I didn't ask how much you get paid exactly, I asked if you get paid more (adjusted for inflation) for effectively doing more work now thanks to LLMs.
> work expands
And if pay doesn't you may ask yourself if LLMs are eating at your pay:)
