I dunno. The stock price will probably dead cat bounce, but this is the sort of thing that causes companies to spiral eventually.
They just made thousands of IT people physically visit machines to fix them. Then all the other IT people watched that happen globally. CTOs got angry emails from other C-levels and VPs. Real money was lost. Nobody is recommending this company for a while.
I have a feeling that Microsoft's PR team will be able to navigate this successfully and Microsoft might even benefit from this incident as it tries to pull customers away from CrowdStrike Falcon and into its own EDR product -- Microsoft Defender for Endpoint.
My (very unprofessional) guess here is that investors in the near term will discount the company too heavily and the previously overvalued stock will blow past a realistic valuation and be priced too low for a little while. The software and company aren't going anywhere as far as I can tell, they have far too much marketshare and use of CrowdStrike is often a contractual obligation.
That said, I don't gamble against trading algorithms these days and am only guessing at what I think will happen. Anyone passing by, please don't take random online posts as financial advice.
I bet they don't even lose a meaningful amount of customers. Switching costs are too high.
A real shame, and a good reminder that we don't own the things we think we own.