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The paper I linked should hopefully mark me out as far from an AI apologist, it's actually really bad news for GenAI if correct. All I mean to say is the clickbait conclusion and the evidence do not match up.



We have started the ara of ai.

It really doesn't matter how good current llms are.

They have been good enough to start this ara.

And no it's not and never has been just llms. Look what Nvidia is doing with ml.

Whisper huge advantage, segment anything again huge. Alpha fold 2 again huge.

All the robot announcements -> huge

I doubt we will reach agi just through llms. We will reach agi through multi modal, mix of experts, some kind of feedback loop, etc.

But the stone started to roll.

And you know I prefer to hear about ai advantages for the next 10-30 years. That's a lot better than the crypto shit we had the last 5 years.


We won't reach agi in our lifetimes.




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