While I agree that AI infra startups are hard to build, I strongly disagree with the idea that they are harder than foundational or application layer startups. I think it boils down to what you know and what resources you can muster.
For instance, foundational AI startups are also ridiculously hard to build. You need an insane amount of funding, spend it pretraining models to stay competitive only to find that gains in hardware and model architecture make them obsolete within months plus there's no real guarantee that scaling will keep working.
Application layer startups are hard in a very different way, there's an insane amount of competition and new capabilities are emerging every few weeks. I have worked with a few AI girlfriend startups and they are really struggling with keeping apace and warding off ridiculous amount of competition.
I think it's really just YMMV. Of course, the deeper you get into the stack, the more monopolizing pressure there is. Is it hard to build AI infra startups? Yes 100%. Will there be very few winners? Yes. Is it harder than foundational or application layer startups? Depends on the founders' strengths. Is it Is it a lost cause? I really don't think so.
Author here. Yes, I explicitly called out the danger of thinking application layer startups are easier, because it totally depends on the founding teams' backgrounds and interests.
For instance, foundational AI startups are also ridiculously hard to build. You need an insane amount of funding, spend it pretraining models to stay competitive only to find that gains in hardware and model architecture make them obsolete within months plus there's no real guarantee that scaling will keep working.
Application layer startups are hard in a very different way, there's an insane amount of competition and new capabilities are emerging every few weeks. I have worked with a few AI girlfriend startups and they are really struggling with keeping apace and warding off ridiculous amount of competition.
I think it's really just YMMV. Of course, the deeper you get into the stack, the more monopolizing pressure there is. Is it hard to build AI infra startups? Yes 100%. Will there be very few winners? Yes. Is it harder than foundational or application layer startups? Depends on the founders' strengths. Is it Is it a lost cause? I really don't think so.