Next year's iPad will most likely be more powerful than the XBOX 360 and PS3 (it already has more ram and supports a higher resolution). That will be a big deal. As it stands, it already does better graphics than last generation's consoles. Add in the really high resolution display, and you can see why console gaming will become more niche.
People have limited money to spend on electronics, and as gaming on consoles becomes better, more people will play games on them instead of buying dedicated gaming machines. With technology like AirPlay, consumers can play tablet games on big TVs.
The same hardware that is in tablets makes its way to phones, which is going to make portable gaming systems very niche. We may even see phones next year that can create better looking games than the XBOX 360 and PS3.
Cloud gaming is on the way, and this will further erode consoles. You'll be able to have a dumb terminal of a TV or set top box that uses servers to render gaming content. Better looking games will naturally happen as servers become cheaper and more powerful.
None of this will replace the console gaming experience for those that really want that experience, but for the more casual audience, it will begin to erode it. With tablets, AirPlay, cloud gaming, etc. what future does a console like the Wii have? Phones can even be used as motion controllers with all of their sensors built in.
There will be a future for XBOX 360 and PS3 style consoles, but I agree that it will be more niche and that the next generation will last a long time. Because of this, I hope the next generation of consoles are built to last a long time.
It's rather interesting that contrary to the popular wisdom around here, general purpose computers are still preferred over locked-down electronic appliances. This is precisely the reason why iPads, iPhones and Androids are probably going to eat into the gaming consoles market.
The biggest problem of PCs is the fast evolution of hardware. When you buy a game for PS3, you know it will work well on your PS3. And when you buy a PS3, you know you'll keep finding games for it, even in 3 years from now. And I bet there are still titles released for PS2. That's the only advantage of console gaming and is quite a big one.
The fast evolution of mobile devices is actually a disadvantage for the kind of people that buy gaming consoles in the first place.
However, console gaming has been a niche for quite some time. This is not new. The exception was Nintendo's Wii, but that was just a fluke.
I'm really surprised that people think consoles are currently a niche market for games, after an example like Call of Duty selling 8.4 million copies in the US in a month, with almost all of the copies on consoles, not PC. And if ever there was a PC-friendly genre, it's the first-person shooter.
According to Hasbro, as of early 2008, more than 250 million copies of Monopoly have been sold worldwide. (As of early 2003, the estimate was "more than 200 million copies.")
The company estimates that nearly 500 million people have played Monopoly.
Anyone want to guess how many decks of playing cards, or chess sets have been sold?
There are some very big numbers for the oldest and most classic video games as well. Take a look at the estimated numbers for Super Mario Brothers. Or the entire Mario franchise.
This is an interesting thought. The next Xbox3 and PS4 will be way more powerful again. But will they release a new model every year like the iPad/iPhone? I guess not. The momentum (and money) of mobile is incredible.
On the other side everyone expects Apple to make something interesting with their Apple TV like enabling Apps or selling their own TV. I am not sure they will do because Airplay works fine. But a standalone box has a few advantages to mobile devices which only stream to the TV: More internal room. Unlimited electricity. Better Controllers.
@Cloud Gaming
This is really interesting and has potential for disruption. But OnLive is not available in Europe, so I can't try out how good/bad it is working. I can only speculate lag will always bother the die-hard fans?
People have limited money to spend on electronics, and as gaming on consoles becomes better, more people will play games on them instead of buying dedicated gaming machines. With technology like AirPlay, consumers can play tablet games on big TVs.
The same hardware that is in tablets makes its way to phones, which is going to make portable gaming systems very niche. We may even see phones next year that can create better looking games than the XBOX 360 and PS3.
Cloud gaming is on the way, and this will further erode consoles. You'll be able to have a dumb terminal of a TV or set top box that uses servers to render gaming content. Better looking games will naturally happen as servers become cheaper and more powerful.
None of this will replace the console gaming experience for those that really want that experience, but for the more casual audience, it will begin to erode it. With tablets, AirPlay, cloud gaming, etc. what future does a console like the Wii have? Phones can even be used as motion controllers with all of their sensors built in.
There will be a future for XBOX 360 and PS3 style consoles, but I agree that it will be more niche and that the next generation will last a long time. Because of this, I hope the next generation of consoles are built to last a long time.