The shit that would be heaved on both the equity and bond markets if the Fed hiked rates at this point is quite possibly Biblical. I'm not disputing that the pain is better now than later - and it may be the case here as well (I don't know, I'm a trader not an economist). My view is that rate hikes aren't really warranted at this point. Inflation is still high but many of the core measures are finally starting to show signs of improvement. The question at this point is whether the Fed can justify cutting this year or only in '25.
The other side of the coin is that if the Fed hiked now, half the country would be up in arms that the Fed basically assassinated the Biden administration. I think the Fed is not in the wrong of waiting a bit, at least until after the elections. Then if inflation starts coming off, well there's nothing for them to do, and if it doesn't, they can do it without so much fuss from politicians.
Hell, if Trump wins, he might be in the lucky position of claiming that he singlehandedly fixed everything and allowed the Fed to start cutting rates :D
The other side of the coin is that if the Fed hiked now, half the country would be up in arms that the Fed basically assassinated the Biden administration. I think the Fed is not in the wrong of waiting a bit, at least until after the elections. Then if inflation starts coming off, well there's nothing for them to do, and if it doesn't, they can do it without so much fuss from politicians.
Hell, if Trump wins, he might be in the lucky position of claiming that he singlehandedly fixed everything and allowed the Fed to start cutting rates :D