On: Fresh water on Earth emerged 500M years earlier th...

[sameerds]

Which way would you update our confidence? A: We were so wrong earlier, but now we "know better", due to better measurements, better models and more evidence, so our confidence is higher. B: We have been so wrong in the past, so our confidence is lower.

To me the second option is akin to despair.

[setgree → sameerds]

I mean in terms of bounds of years. In other words, how much uncertainty surrounds our new estimates.

[sameerds → setgree]

I did mean the same thing, although I ended up using really loose informal English. Should our intervals be tighter on the new finding?

[setgree → sameerds]

not for me. I don't know much about the emergence of freshwater, but if I learn at some point that humans were in the Americas 50,000 years ago --- perhaps they used rudimentary rafts? -- I will not be shocked.