If I can paraphrase, you believe that humans are "intelligence level" 100, and AI is essentially somewhere at like 10 or 20, and is doubling every 2 years.
First, is AI actually improving 2x every 2 years? Can you link to some studies that show the benchmarks? AFAIK OpenAI with ChatGPT was something of an 8 or 10 year project. It being released seemingly "out of nowhere" really biases the perception that things are happening faster than they actually are.
Second, is human intelligence and AI even in the same domain? How many dimensions of intelligence are there? Out of those dimensions, which ones have AI at a zero so far? Which of those dimensions are even entirely impossible for AI? If the answer is "AI" can be just as smart as humans in every way, and we still don't even understand that much about human intelligence and cognition, let alone that of other animals... I'm skeptical the answer is yes. (Thinking about sciences view of actual intelligence, animals, and for a long time the thought was animals are biological automotons, I think shows that we don't even understand intelligence, let alone how to build AGI).
Next, even if the intelligence raise is single dimension and is actually the same sport & playing field, what is to say that the exponential growth you describe will be consistent? Could it not be the case that the 1000x to 1001x improvement might be just as hard as all of the first 1000x improvement? What is to say the complexity increase is not also exponential, or even a combinatoric growth?
First, is AI actually improving 2x every 2 years? Can you link to some studies that show the benchmarks? AFAIK OpenAI with ChatGPT was something of an 8 or 10 year project. It being released seemingly "out of nowhere" really biases the perception that things are happening faster than they actually are.
Second, is human intelligence and AI even in the same domain? How many dimensions of intelligence are there? Out of those dimensions, which ones have AI at a zero so far? Which of those dimensions are even entirely impossible for AI? If the answer is "AI" can be just as smart as humans in every way, and we still don't even understand that much about human intelligence and cognition, let alone that of other animals... I'm skeptical the answer is yes. (Thinking about sciences view of actual intelligence, animals, and for a long time the thought was animals are biological automotons, I think shows that we don't even understand intelligence, let alone how to build AGI).
Next, even if the intelligence raise is single dimension and is actually the same sport & playing field, what is to say that the exponential growth you describe will be consistent? Could it not be the case that the 1000x to 1001x improvement might be just as hard as all of the first 1000x improvement? What is to say the complexity increase is not also exponential, or even a combinatoric growth?
> 20 W can be at least this smart.
20 W? I'm not familiar with it.