It would be interesting to see if the current constellation reentries are in any way grouped over specific areas. My understanding is spacex don't have exact control due to the relative weakness of the ion thrusters and the unpredictability of aerodynamic drag on the big flat surfaces (1). Say only 1% of reentries were completely uncontrolled and random then you're right, that could shift the odds from just acceptable to meh. (1/10.000 -> 1/1.000.000)
1 - https://api.starlink.com/public-files/technology_v2mini_back...