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Not sure Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran are really aligned.

China probably feels the same way about Vladivostok as they do about Taiwan, another territory lost in an "unequal treaty" during "a century of humiliation". They've been on the brink before

https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB49/

Anybody who neighbors Russia is concerned about being overrun with tanks and Spetznaz. Iran was a reliable anti-communist ally of the US in the time of the Shah because of the geopolitical situation of Iran.

All of those countries have an interest in the US and NATO being overstretched, but I don't think China really cares if Russia wins or loses in Ukraine and Russia does not really care if China takes Taiwan.




If China intends to take Taiwan and ultimately go beyond that into other parts of Asia, they have a strong interest in having parts of NATO's forces being tied down defending Europe and the Middle East. And vice versa. North Korea will presumably also help to tie down forces in South Korea.


China is not an expansionist imperial power as your comment seems to imply, quite the opposite, it always talks about how they have no intention to expand beyond its borders... but of course, it sees Taiwan as an internal affair (and most other countries in the world acknowledge it and accept its one-China policy). Taiwan was very much a part of China before the Japanese invaded it in 1895 [1] (though it had also been temporarily colonized by European powers before then), and again once the Japanese lost the war in 1945. Taiwan was then controlled by the Republic of China (ROC) "Party". When the civil war ended in 1949, the ROC lost to the Community party in mainland China and millions of its members fled to Taiwan[2] and hoped to later unify China with itself, but that obviously never happened. They continued to claim to be the legitimate government of all of China (and even parts of neighbouring countries), and apparently some of them still do!

From the Wikipedia article:

"The ROC was a founding member of the United Nations, and held the seat of China on the Security Council and other UN bodies until 1971, when it was expelled by Resolution 2758 and replaced with the PRC. Since 1993, the ROC has petitioned the UN for entry, but its applications have not made it past committee stage.[281][282] Due to the One China policy, most UN member states, including the United States, do not wish to discuss the issue of the ROC's political status for fear of souring diplomatic ties with the PRC."

I believe both sides actually want an eventual unification, Taiwan just doesn't want to lose all its autonomy and have a change of political system (it's a democracy, unlike mainland China).

This issue is really complicated.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan#Japanese_rule_(1895%E2%...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retreat_of_the_government_of_R...


If China can convince Taiwan to democratically rejoin the PRC then that’s fine. If they do it using military force then the issue isn’t really that complicated.


Again, this assumes some kind of overarching relationship among these countries with a shared goal. But what does North Korea gain by, say, keeping South Korea busy while China invades Taiwan? It basically means Pyongyang is flattened by artillery fire and missiles, with a more-likely-than-not chance of regime change.


Basically, but NATO isn't responsible for Asia, but still it is a problem for the US and its allies.


Taiwan is not a part of NATO. The US may, directly or indirectly, help to defend it, but it is not a military concern for other NATO countries.

But frankly, I find it very difficult to believe it could happen in the near future because Taiwan is already very well prepared for an invasion. So unless the Chinese leaders are as badly informed as the ones from Kremlin, they would not attempt a full-scale war over dead bodies and ruins. They attempt the opposite - to lure the Taiwanese, encourage friendly exchanges etc. A war would completely destroy everything. And I don't believe this is the Chinese aim (yet).

(I don't event mention Chinese loses because they can throw a lot of people and equipment just like Putin did and not care about huge loses.)


> Taiwan is already very well prepared for an invasion

The most likely possibility according to the article is not a direct invasion of Taiwan but China controlling Taiwan's borders so that it can decide what trade gets in and out and what doesn't. I don't think Taiwan is in any position to stop that from happening.


"The enemy of my enemy is my enemy's enemy. No more. No less." - Schlock Mercenary Maxim #29.

They aren't "aligned" past the first step. They are aligned on "not the current US-dominated world order". Past that, they aren't aligned at all.

And they aren't friends. They are interested in using each other to help with the first step, and that is all.


Beyond semantics though, russia would have been in much worse shape without iranian drones, nk ammo and chinese everything (no pure military gear yet, but plenty other material)


> "The enemy of my enemy is my enemy's enemy. No more. No less."

Politics makes strange bedfellows, as they say, and so does war.

The WW2 "alliance" between Germany and Finland ? Something along the lines of "The enemy of my enemy is not necessarily my friend, but we can do business".


Exactly.


The China and Russia relationship is complex.

China, historically, has for most part chose to not commit to any alliances -- out of fear of being dragged into an unwanted war. This is largely still true today with the exception of perhaps North Korea today and during the early part of the Mao era with the USSR. According to Kissinger, China instead uses a system of "parallel analysis" where if two parties look at the same facts and arrive at the same conclusion then they will act towards a common goal. This was what China did when it was in a quasi-alliance with the US during the Cold War after the Nixon trips. Something similar might be happening now with Russia in regards to both countries want to see the US attention occupied and resources stretched.

Furthermore, Russia is resource rich but industry poor. China is the reverse. This makes them ideal trade partners. As sibling comments have pointed out, the border disputes between the two countries are now resolved. I guarantee you the PRC does not feel the same way about Vladivostok as they do about Taiwan. Taiwan isn't even foreign in their eyes -- it's an unresolved issue from their civil war. Vladivostok is lost to another country and its loss has been accepted.

> I don't think China really cares if Russia wins or loses in Ukraine and Russia does not really care if China takes Taiwan.

I agree. I think China just wants the war over one way or another. That said, I think they would prefer it if Russia comes out of it with their prestige intact simply because China has so few partners as it is (because of their aversion to alliances).

Lastly, I would add that, if you imagine China abandoning Russia as the US and EU want them to, what would they gain in return? A pat on the head and then what? More requests to comply with the system of liberal democracies? China's foreign policy has a very strong realist bend and is driven by very concrete gains and losses calculations. They don't place as much value on softer things like good will. Why would they jeopardize their energy and resource security for something as nebulous as good will from the US and EU?


China and Russia resolved all their border differences and I don't know why westerners keep repeating this Vladivostok meme .


Maybe because russia has repeatedly signed then broken border agreements? What goes around comes around, there were statements about Alaska being rightfully russian too.




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