The first AGI will probably take way too much compute to have a significant effect, unless there is a revolution in architecture that gets us fast and cheap AGI at once the AGI revolution will be very slow and gradual.
A model that is as good as an average human but costs $10 000 per effective manhour to run is not very useful, but it is still an AGI.
> A model that is as good as an average human but costs $10 000 per effective manhour to run is not very useful, but it is still an AGI.
Geohot (https://geohot.github.io/blog/) estimates that a human brain equivalent requires 20 PFLOPS. Current top-of-the-line GPUs are around 2 PFLOPS and consume up to 500W. Scaling that linearly results in 5kW, which translates to approximately 3 EUR per hour if I calculate correctly.
A model that is as good as an average human but costs $10 000 per effective manhour to run is not very useful, but it is still an AGI.